The new blood test works by measuring levels of two molecules that send messages to the body’s immune system and control inflammation. Photograph: NIAID via The New York Times

Scientists have developed for the first time a scoring system that can accurately predict which hospitalised patients will develop a severe form of coronavirus.

The blood test was developed by researchers at RCSI University of Medicine and Health Sciences in Dublin and in the United States.

The measurement, called “the Dublin-Boston score”, is designed to enable clinicians to make more informed decisions when identifying patients who may benefit from therapies, such as steroids including dexamethasone, and admission to intensive care units.

Prior to this, no coronavirus-specific “prognostic scores” were available to guide clinical decision-making. The Dublin-Boston score can now accurately predict how severe the infection will be on day seven, after measuring the patient’s blood for the first four days.

The blood test works by measuring levels of two molecules that send messages to the body’s immune system and control inflammation.

Infection

One of these molecules, interleukin (IL-6), plays a central role in the body’s defence against infection. Another form of interleukin (IL-10) has potent anti-inflammatory properties that plays a central role in limiting host immune response to pathogens, thereby preventing damage to human cells. The levels of both proteins, which are known as cytokines, are altered in severe coronavirus patients.

Based on the changes in the ratio of these two molecules over time, the researchers developed a point system “where each 1-point increase was associated with a 5.6 times increased odds for a more severe outcome”. Their findings are published in the Lancet research journal EBioMedicine.

“The Dublin-Boston score is easily calculated and can be applied to all hospitalised Covid-19 patients,” said RCSI professor of medicine Gerry McElvaney, the study’s lead author and a consultant at Beaumont Hospital.

“More informed prognosis could help determine when to escalate or de-escalate care, a key component of the efficient allocation of resources during the current pandemic,” he explained.

Infection

One of these molecules, interleukin (IL-6), plays a central role in the body’s defence against infection. Another form of interleukin (IL-10) has potent anti-inflammatory properties that plays a central role in limiting host immune response to pathogens, thereby preventing damage to human cells. The levels of both proteins, which are known as cytokines, are altered in severe coronavirus patients.

Based on the changes in the ratio of these two molecules over time, the researchers developed a point system “where each 1-point increase was associated with a 5.6 times increased odds for a more severe outcome”. Their findings are published in the Lancet research journal EBioMedicine.

“The Dublin-Boston score is easily calculated and can be applied to all hospitalised Covid-19 patients,” said RCSI professor of medicine Gerry McElvaney, the study’s lead author and a consultant at Beaumont Hospital.

“More informed prognosis could help determine when to escalate or de-escalate care, a key component of the efficient allocation of resources during the current pandemic,” he explained.

Infection

One of these molecules, interleukin (IL-6), plays a central role in the body’s defence against infection. Another form of interleukin (IL-10) has potent anti-inflammatory properties that plays a central role in limiting host immune response to pathogens, thereby preventing damage to human cells. The levels of both proteins, which are known as cytokines, are altered in severe coronavirus patients.

Based on the changes in the ratio of these two molecules over time, the researchers developed a point system “where each 1-point increase was associated with a 5.6 times increased odds for a more severe outcome”. Their findings are published in the Lancet research journal EBioMedicine.

“The Dublin-Boston score is easily calculated and can be applied to all hospitalised Covid-19 patients,” said RCSI professor of medicine Gerry McElvaney, the study’s lead author and a consultant at Beaumont Hospital.

“More informed prognosis could help determine when to escalate or de-escalate care, a key component of the efficient allocation of resources during the current pandemic,” he explained.